Unit Five Individual Project

 

Unit Five Individual Project

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

February 27, 2022

https://jackctu.blogspot.com/

Abstract

In this paper, whole body Virtual Reality (VR) is explored in the form of Galea from the company OpenBCI. The product has several features such as time-locking biometric data to a stimulus, the vast slew of sensors, and how this technology can be exapted into other forms to suit various industries. A limitation, lack of contact with sensors, is established and its consequences explored and also why this product is necessary. The amenable and challenging forces are provided, as is the choice of the Structured Design Process methodology. A model is included that illustrates how virtual reality and augmented reality affect several different industries. The sociotechnical plan will be evaluated with the Process Evaluation Framework. The anticipated results of Galea are provided as well as a conclusion for this innovation. Finally, future areas of research are provided. 

Unit Four Individual Project

Introduction

The innovation for discussion is whole body Virtual Reality (VR). Virtual Reality has been around in one basic form or another since the 1800s through panoramic paintings, the early 1900s through the Link Trainer flight simulator, and up to 2016 when standalone VR headsets went mainstream (VRS, 2020). These headsets are a remarkable improvement compared to earlier innovations, but there is still room to grow. Ahead lies two paths: innovators bring VR to the user’s mind through current methods such as headsets, or innovators bring the user’s mind to VR almost as if logging into a computer. 

An example of the first iteration would be the HalfDive VR created by Diver-X. The company’s initial goal was a technology with direct contact with the brain, such as BCI (Brain-Computer Interface), but it had many obstacles. Eventually, the company realized they intended to simply experience VR through a Half-Dive (half of Full-Dive) experience by combining currently accessible technologies (Kickstarter, 2022). Unfortunately, the company found several issues related to lens outsourcing and lack of funding, so the project was canceled. 

An example of the latter path, bringing the user’s mind into VR, could be found in several media designs such as The Matrix or Sword Art Online. In The Matrix, users already have technology implanted into their heads shortly after birth and can connect a cable to the jack at the base of their skull. In Sword Art Online, users employ a headset similar to HalfDive called the NerveGear. The user reclines in a sleeping position, activates the device, and their consciousness is transported to a virtual world while their natural body lies motionless and unfeeling. 

Galea

The intended product for this assignment, OpenBCI’s Galea, is expanding upon the innovation of these systems and realizing its full potential resulting in an experience more closely resembling the examples from The Matrix or Sword Art Online. Galea possesses several different sensors such as electroencephalography (EEG), electrooculography (EOG), electromyography (EMG), electrodermal activity (EDA), and photoplethysmography (PPG) (Hayden, 2021). The company, OpenBCI, states that Galea provides researchers and developers the tools to measure emotions and facial expressions such as happiness, anxiety, depression, attention span, and interest level (Hayden, 2021). 

Galea is a hardware and software platform that merges next-generation biometrics with mixed reality. It integrates into existing AR and VR head-mounted displays such as the Valve Index. It will ensure tightly time-locked biometric data into development engines, applications, and common programming languages (Dormehl, 2020). Users will experience VR so that it feels almost like the ordinary everyday world they are used to. Additionally, this technology would allow for several different types of work and socialization in VR in ways that have never happened before. 

Features and Limitations

There are several features of this device, but there are also limitations. The first feature is the precise time-locking of biometric data to a stimulus. When stimulation occurs, the device should instantly read the biometrics concerning that stimulus to respond accurately. If the time-locking were slower, the feedback would be incorrect and cause errors with the proper response. It would be like watching a movie that skips ahead a bit every few seconds. You would understand the gist of the experience, but it would undoubtedly fall short.

This product, Galea, would allow VR to become better realized than its current state by including physical sensor data within the application. This is similar to the NeuroSky MindWave headsets that measure brainwave signals and monitor individuals' attention levels as they interact with a variety of apps (NeuroSky, 2022). The Galea possesses the same sensors and more to determine the user’s biometric data within the application accurately. Have you ever played a horror survival game? They can get intense when playing on the console, but even more so in VR because it’s right in your face. Now imagine the same scary scene, but the game can detect your fear and stress levels and either increase or decrease the fear-inducing aspects of the application. 

The third feature for the Galea is how it makes VR feel more immersive. This opens the playing field to the typical gaming vendors and other applications such as therapy or healthcare. A meta-analysis investigated the efficacy of Virtual Reality Exposure Therapy (VRET) as an effective treatment for PTSD compared to the waitlist and active comparators. The findings suggest that VRET may be as effective as active comparators for PTSD patients (Kothgassner et al., 2019). Additionally, this level of virtual interaction empowers developers to create a sandbox of wide-ranging applications that can have varying uses throughout many industries.

One of the limitations of this innovation is the integration of contact of these many sensors to the user’s body. Body shapes and variations exist across individuals, and without proper contact with the sensors, the signal degrades, and environmental noise creeps into the data. Additionally, it was found in the electrical work that a star ground configuration allowed developers to explore different ground setups and determine whether each ground plane should be continuous or connected by resistors while still making sure that every signal trace has an adjacent return path (Bernal, 2021). Similar to the sensors, proper grounding paths were needed to ensure a lack of environmental noise that could disrupt the sensors and their readings. 

Purpose

This technology is needed to expand the ways and forms in which we socialize and how technology is integrated within society. A specific example was already mentioned regarding therapy for PTSD. Using VR, a patient and doctor can step through a controlled environment to experience a trauma even in small doses and thus build a tolerance. Utilizing the Galea, the patient’s biometrics can be monitored, and their treatment better tailored to suit their specific needs. Also, society can benefit from this technology as it is expanded to enable even more assistive technology for individuals who require it. 

Supportive Forces

Two of the supporting forces are technological and medical. As ideas and innovations prosper, so too does technology. While the Galea may have rather specific uses, the technology it employs could also be exapted into other forms and applications. The medical industry could see significant returns on the type of care provided, and its consistency, to patients. Additionally, those in need of assistive technology may have yet another opportunity to claim it in the form of the Galea. 

Challenging Forces

Two of the primary challenging forces take the form of ethical and financial forces. By its nature, the Galea tracks and relays biometric data to its applications. Many individuals, groups, or organizations may be concerned with storing and using this data. Additionally, the financial force plays a significant role in this product. It will be quite expensive to research and develop, which could translate to a higher price point for consumers. This could effectively create a steep divide between those willing to accommodate such a price point and those who are not. 

Structured Design Process (SDP) Methodology

The Structured Design Process (SDP) has been chosen for this innovation because it is best suited. This process allows a complex design to be partitioned into smaller modules, and details of each module are hidden from the others (Kission et al., 1994). Each type of sensor (EEG, EOG, EMG, etc.) will be contained within its own module. The time-locking aspect of biometrics will constitute another module because this aspect is critical to the Galea. Additionally, the typical elements of VR such as tracking, video, vibration, controller inputs, and audio will also have their own modules and submodules. 

Model

 

(World Economic Forum, 2022).

As can be seen from the model above, there are numerous avenues for virtual and augmented reality. Project Galea benefits from these same avenues and can create new material or processes to enhance the entertainment industry and healthcare, digital communications, and the digital economy. While Galea is better suited to particular aspects within this illustration, it can still be used for all others. Because of the broad swath of potential integration, virtual reality and augmented reality are here to stay and will help make our lives more comfortable. 

Analytical Plan

This sociotechnical plan will be evaluated using the Process Evaluation Framework recommended by‬ Moore ‭et al. (2015), such as contextual factors‭, implementation process, and the‬‬ mechanism of impact. Dietrich et al. (2019) used the same approach when testing a VR system with teenagers regarding peer pressure and social decisions. The contextual factors are any external factors that can affect the implementation of Galea. ‬‬‬‬

According to Moore et al. (2015), the actual implementation process consists of three factors in the form of fidelity, reach, and dose. Fidelity delivers the product as intended, and Galea will be evaluated in the same way to ensure that the base goals of its deployment are met. Reach determines whether consumers encounter Galea and how. It can help determine if price points are too high or low, the availability of the product from retailers, and where they may have initially heard about the product. Dose refers to how often the product is used. While Galea will not replace specific computing products, it will enhance them and create its niche environment. 

The mechanism of impact refers to the consumers' interaction with the product (Dietrich et al., 2019). Galea has several use-cases available outside the box and offers several others, depending on future implementation in several industries. The critical evaluation here will focus on the core mechanics and goals of Galea to ensure a quality product. This is a necessary step to ensure that the product meets the baseline requirements, which can then be expanded later, as needed. 

Anticipated Results

The social impact that Galea represents is massive, albeit in a niche area. It will further enhance the gaming/entertainment industry by providing additional biometrics leading to further immersion. Other sectors such as healthcare, therapy, or physical sports training will see positive gains in their environments. Additionally, consumers will have enhanced social interactions due to the heightened levels of immersion. 

Conclusion

Innovation includes developing new products, processes, or business models that better fit the needs of a group of consumers (DiFranza, 2020). One of the most famous innovators in history is Nikola Tesla, who invented the first alternating current motor and developed AC generation and transmission technology (History, 2009). Though he worked alone or in pairs with other people, he provided many inventions that were equaled only by his many failures. This illustrates how just one person can change the world through innovation. 

Innovation in Organization

Innovation is somewhat different within an organization but is also mostly the same. Qualified people can work alone or form teams to tackle an innovative idea within an organization. Additionally, proper steps must be observed to keep projects on task. Organizations typically have the funding and staffing to generate creative ideas and fully realize them compared to individuals or small groups. Additionally, organizations tend to have a much more diverse staff that can be called upon to help flesh out innovation details. 

Innovation in Society

Actors in society, compared to organizations, tend to have a much less formal process when it comes to innovations. These innovators are typically self-starters who may or may not have the knowledge and technical prowess required to realize their innovation fully. For the most part, these individuals or small groups have more flexible ideas than organizations but lack the skills, funding, or staffing to make it happen. That is not to say that innovators in society should be ignored. Instead, it simply means that the standard barriers to innovation pose more of an obstacle for these innovators. Regardless, crowdsourcing and crowdfunding solutions such as GoFundMe.com exist and are often employed. 

How Galea Affects Organizations

Project Galea is an innovation that can affect a great deal of the world, including organizations, the markets, and suppliers. Some organizations will want to include this technology into their structure to enhance how they do business. As Galea becomes a prominent leader for several niche industries, markets will be affected, and Galea will also aid more generalized initiatives. Additionally, raw materials used in its construction will enhance the supply and demand of those resources. Galea will be seen as an innovative tool that allows an organization to expand its capabilities and further support its customer base. 

How Galea Affects Society

Galea will affect society because it affects how people can communicate and more fully submerge themselves into an immersive experience. Entertainment will be even more interactive while individuals can enhance communication with friends. Society will view this innovation as the next logical step in immersion while they eagerly await the next step. Galea will be a boon to society because it allows blending technology and society in a more cohesive and seamless experience. 

Areas of Future Research: What is needed in the future?

Regarding future research, several areas should be explored. The first is to understand how this technology can be further enhanced and what other biometrics should be included. The second is how can this technology become smaller and more convenient? The third is to research the next step of immersion and how Galea or another similar innovation can help us get there. Finally, we must discover an even better innovation that will far outshine Galea. 

References

Bernal, G. (2021). Developing Galea: An open-source tool at the intersection of VR and Neuroscience. MIT Media Lab. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from https://www.media.mit.edu/posts/galea/ 

Dietrich, Timo & Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn & Kubacki, Krzysztof & Durl, James & Gullo, Matthew & Arli, Denni & Connor, Jason. (2019). Virtual reality in social marketing: a process evaluation. Marketing Intelligence & Planning. ahead-of-print. 10.1108/MIP-11-2018-0537.

DiFranza, A. (2020). What does it mean to be innovative? Northeastern University Graduate Programs. Retrieved February 21, 2022, from https://www.northeastern.edu/graduate/blog/what-does-it-mean-to-be-innovative/

Dormehl, L. (2020). Brain-reading headset galea may make keyboards obsolete. Digital Trends. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from https://www.digitaltrends.com/features/galea-mind-computer-interface/?mc_cid=60c41105be&mc_eid=%5B0c60f32dd5%5D 

Hayden, S. (2021). Valve, openbci & tobii to launch vr brain-computer interface 'galea' in early 2022. Road to VR. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-openbci-immersive-vr-games/ 

History. (2009). Nikola tesla. History.com. Retrieved February 21, 2022, from https://www.history.com/topics/inventions/nikola-tesla 

Kickstarter. (2022). Halfdive -world's first vr system optimized for use in bed- (canceled). Kickstarter. Retrieved February 8, 2022, from https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/diver-x/halfdive-worlds-first-vr-system-optimized-for-use-in-bed 

Kission, P., Ding, H., & Jerraya, A. (1994). Design methodology management using graph grammars - CECS. Retrieved February 10, 2022, from http://www.cecs.uci.edu/~papers/compendium94-03/papers/1994/dac94/pdffiles/29_3.pdf 

Kothgassner, O. D., Goreis, A., Kafka, J. X., Van Eickels, R. L., Plener, P. L., & Felnhofer, A. (2019). Virtual reality exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD): a meta-analysis. European journal of psychotraumatology, 10(1), 1654782. 

NeuroSky. (2022). EEG sensors - eeg headsets. NeuroSky. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from http://neurosky.com/biosensors/eeg-sensor/biosensors/ 

Moore, G., Audrey, S., Barker, M., Bond, L., Bonell, C., Hardeman, W., Moore, L., O‭’cathain, A., Tinati, T.,‬‬ Wight, D. and Baird, J. (2015), ‭“Process evaluation of complex interventions: medical research‬‬ council guidance‭”,BMJ‭,Vol.350,p.h1258.‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬

VRS. (2020). History of virtual reality. Virtual Reality Society. Retrieved February 4, 2022, from https://www.vrs.org.uk/virtual-reality/history.html 

World Economic Forum. (2022). Strategic intelligence: world economic forum. Stategic Intelligence. Retrieved February 21, 2022, from https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000001k6I0EAI?tab=publications 

Unit Five Discussion Board Two

 

 

Unit Four Individual Project

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

February 13, 2022

https://jackctu.blogspot.com/

Abstract

In this paper, whole body Virtual Reality (VR) is explored in the form of Galea from the company OpenBCI. The product has several features such as time-locking biometric data to a stimulus, the vast slew of sensors, and how this technology can be exapted into other forms to suit various industries. A limitation, lack of contact with sensors, is established and its consequences explored and also why this product is necessary. The amenable and challenging forces are provided as is the choice of the Structured Design Process methodology. 

Unit Four Individual Project

Introduction

The innovation for discussion is whole body Virtual Reality (VR). Virtual Reality has been around in one basic form or another since the 1800s through panoramic paintings, the early 1900s through the Link Trainer flight simulator, and up to 2016 when standalone VR headsets went mainstream (VRS, 2020). These headsets are a remarkable improvement compared to earlier innovations, but there is still room to grow. Ahead lies two paths: innovators bring VR to the user’s mind through current methods such as headsets, or innovators bring the user’s mind to VR almost as if logging into a computer. 

An example of the first iteration would be the HalfDive VR created by Diver-X. The company’s initial goal was a technology with direct contact with the brain, such as BCI (Brain-Computer Interface), but it had many obstacles. Eventually, the company realized they intended to simply experience VR through a Half-Dive (half of Full-Dive) experience by combining currently accessible technologies (Kickstarter, 2022). Unfortunately, the company found several issues related to lens outsourcing and lack of funding, so the project was canceled. 

An example of the latter path, bringing the user’s mind into VR, could be found in several media designs such as The Matrix or Sword Art Online. In The Matrix, users already have technology implanted into their heads shortly after birth and can connect a cable to the jack at the base of their skull. In Sword Art Online, users employ a headset similar to HalfDive called the NerveGear. The user reclines in a sleeping position, activates the device, and their consciousness is transported to a virtual world while their natural body lies motionless and unfeeling. 

Galea

The intended product for this assignment, OpenBCI’s Galea, is expanding upon the innovation of these systems and realizing its full potential resulting in an experience more closely resembling the examples from The Matrix or Sword Art Online. Galea possesses several different sensors such as electroencephalography (EEG), electrooculography (EOG), electromyography (EMG), electrodermal activity (EDA), and photoplethysmography (PPG) (Hayden, 2021). The company, OpenBCI, states that Galea provides researchers and developers the tools to measure emotions and facial expressions such as happiness, anxiety, depression, attention span, and interest level (Hayden, 2021). 

Galea is a hardware and software platform that merges next-generation biometrics with mixed reality. It integrates into existing AR and VR head-mounted displays such as the Valve Index. It will ensure tightly time-locked biometric data into development engines, applications, and common programming languages (Dormehl, 2020). Users will experience VR so that it feels almost like the ordinary everyday world they are used to. Additionally, this technology would allow for several different types of work and socialization in VR in ways that have never happened before. 

Features and Limitations

There are several features of this device, but there are also limitations. The first feature is the precise time-locking of biometric data to a stimulus. When stimulation occurs, the device should instantly read the biometrics concerning that stimulus to respond accurately. If the time-locking were slower, the feedback would be incorrect and cause errors with the proper response. It would be like watching a movie that skips ahead a bit every few seconds. You would understand the gist of the experience, but it would undoubtedly fall short.

This product, Galea, would allow VR to become better realized than its current state by including physical sensor data within the application. This is similar to the NeuroSky MindWave headsets that measure brainwave signals and monitor individuals' attention levels as they interact with a variety of apps (NeuroSky, 2022). The Galea possesses the same sensors and more to determine the user’s biometric data within the application accurately. Have you ever played a horror survival game? They can get intense when playing on the console, but even more so in VR because it’s right in your face. Now imagine the same scary scene, but the game can detect your fear and stress levels and either increase or decrease the fear-inducing aspects of the application. 

The third feature for the Galea is how it makes VR feel more immersive. This opens the playing field to the typical gaming vendors and other applications such as therapy or healthcare. A meta-analysis investigated the efficacy of Virtual Reality Exposure Therapy (VRET) as an effective treatment for PTSD compared to the waitlist and active comparators. The findings suggest that VRET may be as effective as active comparators for PTSD patients (Kothgassner et al., 2019). Additionally, this level of virtual interaction empowers developers to create a sandbox of wide-ranging applications that can have varying uses throughout many industries.

One of the limitations of this innovation is the integration of contact of these many sensors to the user’s body. Body shapes and variations exist across individuals, and without proper contact with the sensors, the signal degrades, and environmental noise creeps into the data. Additionally, it was found in the electrical work that a star ground configuration allowed developers to explore different ground setups and determine whether each ground plane should be continuous or connected by resistors while still making sure that every signal trace has an adjacent return path (Bernal, 2021). Similar to the sensors, proper grounding paths were needed to ensure a lack of environmental noise that could disrupt the sensors and their readings. 

Purpose

This technology is needed to expand the ways and forms in which we socialize and how technology is integrated within society. A specific example was already mentioned regarding therapy for PTSD. Using VR, a patient and doctor can step through a controlled environment to experience a trauma even in small doses and thus build a tolerance. Utilizing the Galea, the patient’s biometrics can be monitored, and their treatment better tailored to suit their specific needs. Also, society can benefit from this technology as it is expanded to enable even more assistive technology for individuals who require it. 

Supportive Forces

Two of the supporting forces are technological and medical. As ideas and innovations prosper, so too does technology. While the Galea may have rather specific uses, the technology it employs could also be exapted into other forms and applications. The medical industry could see significant returns on the type of care provided, and its consistency, to patients. Additionally, those in need of assistive technology may have yet another opportunity to claim it in the form of the Galea. 

Challenging Forces

Two of the primary challenging forces take the form of ethical and financial forces. By its nature, the Galea tracks and relays biometric data to its applications. Many individuals, groups, or organizations may be concerned with storing and using this data. Additionally, the financial force plays a significant role in this product. It will be quite expensive to research and develop, which could translate to a higher price point for consumers. This could effectively create a steep divide between those willing to accommodate such a price point and those who are not. 

Structured Design Process (SDP) Methodology

The Structured Design Process (SDP) has been chosen for this innovation because it is best suited. This process allows a complex design to be partitioned into smaller modules, and details of each module are hidden from the others (Kission et al., 1994). Each type of sensor (EEG, EOG, EMG, etc.) will be contained within its own module. The time-locking aspect of biometrics will constitute another module because this aspect is critical to the Galea. Additionally, the typical elements of VR such as tracking, video, vibration, controller inputs, and audio will also have their own modules and submodules. 

Models: Include at least 1–2 visual models.
Analytical Plan: How will you evaluate it?
Anticipated Results: Discuss the social impact of change.
Conclusion: How is innovation diffused within an organization or society (2 pages of final analysis)?
Areas of Future Research: What is needed in the future?

References

Bernal, G. (2021). Developing Galea: An open-source tool at the intersection of VR and Neuroscience. MIT Media Lab. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from https://www.media.mit.edu/posts/galea/ 

Dormehl, L. (2020). Brain-reading headset galea may make keyboards obsolete. Digital Trends. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from https://www.digitaltrends.com/features/galea-mind-computer-interface/?mc_cid=60c41105be&mc_eid=%5B0c60f32dd5%5D 

Hayden, S. (2021). Valve, openbci & tobii to launch VR Brain-Computer interface 'galea' in early 2022. Road to VR. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-openbci-immersive-vr-games/ 

Kickstarter. (2022). Halfdive -world's first VR system optimized for use in bed- (canceled). Kickstarter. Retrieved February 8, 2022, from https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/diver-x/halfdive-worlds-first-vr-system-optimized-for-use-in-bed 

Kission, P., Ding, H., & Jerraya, A. (1994). Design methodology management using graph grammars - CECS. Retrieved February 10, 2022, from http://www.cecs.uci.edu/~papers/compendium94-03/papers/1994/dac94/pdffiles/29_3.pdf 

Kothgassner, O. D., Goreis, A., Kafka, J. X., Van Eickels, R. L., Plener, P. L., & Felnhofer, A. (2019). Virtual reality exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD): a meta-analysis. European journal of psychotraumatology, 10(1), 1654782. 

NeuroSky. (2022). EEG sensors - EEG headsets. NeuroSky. Retrieved February 9, 2022, from http://neurosky.com/biosensors/eeg-sensor/biosensors/ 

VRS. (2020). History of virtual reality. Virtual Reality Society. Retrieved February 4, 2022, from https://www.vrs.org.uk/virtual-reality/history.html 

 

Unit Four Discussion Board Three

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

February 8, 2022

Unit Four Discussion Board Three

Diver-X

The company in question is Diver-X, founded in Tokyo, Japan, in 2021. Their goal is to maximize human output/experience through the human sleeping position and provide a revolutionary virtual reality (VR) experience (Diver-X, 2021a). This would be done through their product, Halfdive, which resembles a typical VR headset, but it’s positioned on a moveable stand. The user lays down flat comfortably and slides into the headset. It possesses four and a half degrees of freedom (DoF) (six DoF, virtual), one hundred thirty-four degrees field of view, a refresh rate of ninety hertz, a pair of foot and hand controllers, and employs the Unity software development kit (SDK) and the Unreal engine (Diver-X, 2021b). 

The aim is to increase VR immersion and comfort for the user. One would use the foot controllers to ‘walk’ through VR using their Avatar system. This is a newly founded company with only two members – though they have each won awards for their previous work. On January 31, 2022, they posted the announcement that they were closing the Halfdive project due to three reasons. The first reason was based on the specs and how they did not match well enough to become a reality because it was too niche-focused. The second reason was outsourcing for the hardware, specifically the lenses required. This issue led to higher costs than expected and created a bottleneck in mass production (Diver-X, 2021c). The third reason was the lack of funding to enable mass production at the projected costs. In summary, it was found that the product would simply not operate as well as intended and cost too much to make a profit. 

Fully Immersive Virtual Reality

My sociotechnical plan would realize fully immersive VR for the user. As it stands, VR is primarily used for gaming but enjoys other applications, such as in the automotive and healthcare industries (UXPlanet, 2018). Full-body VR allows for a richer and more full immersion that can open the door for yet more applications. Additionally, the level of comfort and convenience will also increase. The impact to my sociotechnical plan would be the enhanced connection between the user and the technology. From that point, other users would be empowered to interact on projects, tasks, or assignments. 

Two forces that will affect my idea are economical and social. Many organizations offer training in the form of simulations, as applicable. An example could be learning to drive a vehicle, a dentist training on a new procedure, or even an unusual task such as disarming a virtual bomb. If these simulations are to occur, participants will need to employ VR hardware, usually in the form of a mask and controllers. With full-bodied VR, these pieces of training can be enhanced to deliver more accurate training because of the increased comfort and convenience for the user. Users wouldn’t need to gather from multiple locations to attend a class; they could instead just interact with this solution. The company would save money on travel and education expenses and have a reliable training tool in-house. 

The second force is social, and it can have a far-reaching impact. With full-body VR, users will interact more seamlessly. Instead of having just a head and two hands in the experience, their entire body will be present. Though this does not seem like much, there could be several applications for it, especially on a social front. I could foresee a group of friends getting together virtually to show off their dance moves, a trainer providing a workout class, or a virtual orchestra performing for a broad audience. 

References

Diver-X. (2021a). X English homepage. Diver. Retrieved February 3, 2022, from https://diver-x.jp/en/#mission 

Diver-X. (2021b). Specifications. Halfdive. Retrieved February 3, 2022, from https://diver-x.jp/halfdive/en/ 

Diver-X. (2021c). Cancellation of our kickstarter project. Diver. Retrieved February 3, 2022, from https://diver-x.jp/news/en/20220131.html 

UXPlanet. (2018). The influence of VR and AR across industries is growing. Medium. Retrieved February 3, 2022, from https://uxplanet.org/the-influence-of-vr-and-ar-across-industries-is-growing-36362a00cffc 

 

Unit Four Discussion Board Two

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

February 1, 2022

Unit Four Discussion Board Two

    Innovative discoveries are constantly being realized through various means in the world. Some findings are small and may not garner much attention, while others become extremely popular and spread globally. These discoveries are typically researched and are finally realized through much effort. Other discoveries are simply stumbled upon by complete accident or chance. 

Velcro

    Velcro is one innovation that changed the world but came about through serendipitous means. George de Mestral was an electrical engineer who noticed hundreds of microscopic hooks outside of burdock burrs that would catch his dog’s fur while hiking (Velcro, 2020). He would spend the next ten years attempting to create a new clothing fastener using the same hook and loop system. He eventually succeeded in his endeavor, and it’s all because of these seeds sticking the fur of his dog. 

Vulcanization

    Rubber has been in use since the eighteen hundreds but has seen its fair share of issues. Though rubber was quite popular and used extensively globally, it melted into blobs in extreme heat and cracked in the winter (Connecticut History, 2020). Charles Goodyear saw this fatal flaw and vowed to fix it by experimenting with rubber and other additives. Some were more successful than others, but it wasn’t until he accidentally combined rubber and sulfur on a hot stove that he saw authentic results. When he increased the heat of this combination, the rubber hardened and became vulcanized because the sulfur forms bridges between individual polymer molecules and significantly strengthens them (Polymerdatabase, 2022). 

GroundProbe

    Some innovations are realized with a particular use in mind. Sometimes, the intended use falls short or simply is not in demand, as projected. That innovation can then be exapted for a different service with the same success rate. This was the case with the radar technology provided by GroundProbe. Their radar equipment is extremely precise over a relatively short range and was intended to locate pipes and underground power cables (Kastelle, 2015). The demand for this technology was absent, so the technology was then exapted into the mining industry to detect potential mine wall collapses and save lives (GroundProbe, 2021). 

    The three terms, serendipity, error, and exaptation, mean something different to each person based on their experiences. For me, serendipity represents much of the older world and inventions discovered when events happened to align just right, and an answer is presented. Error is illustrated by the creation of penicillin and other fantastical designs that occurred by accident. Exaptation makes me think of the current world and how we repurpose known technologies and adapt them to new problems. 

References

Connecticut History. (2020). Charles goodyear and the vulcanization of rubber: connecticut history: A cthumanities project. Connecticut History | a CTHumanities Project. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://connecticuthistory.org/charles-goodyear-and-the-vulcanization-of-rubber/ 

GroundProbe. (2021). What we do: groundprobe - global technology leaders. GroundProbe. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://www.groundprobe.com/what-we-do/ 

Kastelle, T. (2015). Innovation through exaptation. Tim Kastelle. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://timkastelle.org/blog/2010/05/innovation-through-exaptation/

Polymerdatabase. (2022). Sulfur vulcanization of rubbers. Sulfur vulcanization. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from http://polymerdatabase.com/polymer%20chemistry/Vulcanization.html 

Velcro. (2020). How velcro brand fasteners were invented: velcro brand uk. United Kingdom. Retrieved February 1, 2022, from https://www.velcro.co.uk/blog/2018/06/how-velcro-brand-fasteners-were-invented/ 

 

Unit Three Individual Project

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

January 30, 2022

Abstract

This paper reviews scenario planning and traditional forecasting regarding Sony and its product, the Walkman. It was shown that Sony only employed traditional forecasting and not scenario planning, which allowed a rival company, Apple, an edge on the MP3 market. The forces that impacted this transition are considered, as is how Apple’s understanding of these forces allowed them this marketing edge. Additionally, the author provides personal comments on how scenario planning can be employed for future innovation and the social impact of change. 

Unit Three Individual Project

Sony and Forecasting

In the past, Sony has been a powerhouse among other businesses. It has a hand in several areas, such as TVs, games, cameras, audio, and memory storage (Sony, 2021). Several factors can shape these products, and it can be challenging to mitigate all, or even most, of the risks involved. Two quite valuable tools in this endeavor are scenario planning and traditional forecasting. Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imagining possible futures that companies can apply to many issues (Schoemaker, 1995). Conversely, Traditional forecasting employs historical observations to forecast future business metrics such as performance, inventory, or sales (DSPanel, 2020). 

Scenario planning allows a company to take a set of inputs and variables and theoretically align them to see what happens. This can result in a very accurate prediction but can also require a heavy investment of resources. Traditional forecasting simply looks at the numbers for a specific amount of time, such as quarters or years, to predict what the future may hold. Though it may be much cheaper than scenario planning, its one-dimensional approach cannot fully account for variables or issues, resulting in incorrect predictions.

Issues for Sony

Sony found itself in such a predicament with its product, the Sony Walkman, some years ago. While the original Walkman was highly successful, introducing CDs and digital music files such as MP3 created problems. Sony was quick to adapt to this change, and the Walkman evolved to be compatible with these new file types. At this point, Sony’s main issues with traditional forecasting began. The market was completely saturated with many MP3 players, and Sony’s projections with traditional forecasting had made it feel safe enough to ride the wave while generating profit. 

That same market had several issues, such as being unable to download MP3 files legally or conveniently. Apple introduced the iPod and the iTunes Music Store after accurately predicting the problems with legality and convenience (Hernandez, 2019). Instead of brashly throwing the iPod into the market, Apple decided to provide a platform to purchase MP3 files easily and legally. Without the benefit of scenario planning, Sony was caught flat-footed by the change, and Apple came to dominate the market from that point on. 

Scenario Planning

Individuals, groups, and businesses all possess reasons for change, which can be highly contextual. Scenario planning allows an entity to create a ‘what-if’ scenario and watch the events unfold to their climax. That entity can reposition, introduce, and remove variables affecting outcomes until the ideal design is obtained. Similarly, scenario planning can be an excellent tool for innovation because it allows that entity to understand the relationships between the variables that can affect the eventual product, service, or goal. 

There can be several forces involved in change, which are highly contextual. The forces were conventional and technological regarding Apple and their bid to dominate the MP3 area. MP3 files did not possess a standardized format for downloading that was legal and ethical. Additionally, while MP3 players had saturated the market, Apple saw that what was needed was a technological platform that allowed for the smooth transition of MP3 files from the vendor to the customer. Apple introduced the iTunes Music Store and the iPod, which positioned them to meet the complete needs of their customers. 

 

Future Innovation Efforts and Social Impact

Scenario planning is an excellent tool for future innovation efforts because it can illustrate a close approximation for a finished product or service. Additionally, even if there is no specific end goal in mind, scenario planning allows us to foresee the ‘landscape’ that could lead in the direction developers wish to pursue. I fall into the latter category as I currently have no ongoing projects. However, I prioritize efficiency in my work, and scenario planning allows me to understand how future technologies and processes can fit into my current tasks at work and streamline them. 

Scenario planning only accounts for the variables that are observed in the model. These are usually explicit variables that are manipulated but can also be implicit. If the social impact of any change is accounted for, it allows us to understand that impact better. If that impact is not accounted for, we may still get lucky and catch a glimpse of it. However, this is not advisable, and it should be counted as an explicit variable. 

References

DSPanel. (2020). Live forecasting vs traditional forecasting vs rolling forecasting. Performance Canvas. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://www.performancecanvas.com/live-vs-rolling-vs-traditional-forecasting/ 

Hernandez, M. (2019). Sony walkman and scenario planning. Dr. Michael K Hernandez. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://mkhernandez.wordpress.com/2018/02/24/sony-didnt-use-proper-scenario-type-planning-on-the-walkman/#:~:text=Sony%20didn't%20do%20proper,it%20big%20in%20the%20market. 

Schoemaker, P. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://sloanreview.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/1995/01/bb0aeaa3ab.pdf 

Sony. (2021). Consumer electronics. Consumer Electronics | Sony ET. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://www.sony.com/et/all-electronics 

 

Unit Three Discussion Board Two

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

January 18, 2022

Unit Three Discussion Board Two

        A prediction that was made by Nikola Tesla over one hundred years ago has come to fruition. Tesla was born in 1856 in Croatia and eventually moved to the United States and worked for Thomas Edison. He was ahead of his time and possessed a high level of innovation that allowed him to invest in many technologies. When alternating current (AC) favored by Tesla competed against direct current (DC), favored by Edison, Tesla publicly subjected himself to 250,000-volt shocks to demonstrate AC’s safety and ultimately won the competition (Newhall, 2013). 

Prediction

        Nikola Tesla stated in Popular Mechanics in 1909 that it would be possible to send wireless messages back and forth across the globe in the future using a mass-available handheld device (Sacco, 2010). Tesla boldly and accurately predicted the rise of smartphones. Keep in mind that while such large-scale predictions as this came true, several others have had far less success, such as everyone enjoying a personal helicopter or airplane runways atop skyscrapers. Regardless, this specific prediction of business innovation did eventually occur and proved Tesla correct. 

Forces

        Several different forces impacted this prediction and the eventual result. The technological force was paramount to Tesla because it was yet another invention that could significantly affect all involved. Additionally, if this technology could have been achieved during his lifetime and expanded upon from that point, today’s form of the same technology may be much more advanced. The technological force, the need to improve the available conditions of technology, seems to have been a constant for Tesla. 

        Once the technology was demonstrated, it was only a matter of scaling it up to attract more users. This is where the global force came in and pushed that technology out to the masses. The idea was transformed into smartphones, with cell phones becoming more popular, efficient, and necessary. At this stage, the current iteration exceeds the prediction set forth by Tesla, but this is a good thing. 

        User adoption has become so prevalent that building materials and processes see a reduction in costs. The global force allows Tesla’s prediction of international wireless messages through hand-held devices to truly meet the forecast letter. Furthermore, the societal force practically ensures that users will continue purchasing, using, and upgrading their smartphones for the foreseeable future. This is because society enjoys the permitted access to interconnectedness with individuals, groups, and businesses that is possible with the end-product of Tesla’s prediction. 

 

References

Newhall, M. (2013). Top 11 things you didn't know about nikola tesla. Energy.gov. Retrieved January 12,         2022, from https://www.energy.gov/articles/top-11-things-you-didnt-know-about-nikola-tesla 

Sacco, A. (2010). Blackberry, smartphones predicted by physicist tesla 100 years ago. CIO. Retrieved             January 12, 2022, from https://www.cio.com/article/294876/mobile-blackberry-smartphones-predicted-by-physicist-tesla-100-years-ago.html