Unit Three Individual Project

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

January 30, 2022

Abstract

This paper reviews scenario planning and traditional forecasting regarding Sony and its product, the Walkman. It was shown that Sony only employed traditional forecasting and not scenario planning, which allowed a rival company, Apple, an edge on the MP3 market. The forces that impacted this transition are considered, as is how Apple’s understanding of these forces allowed them this marketing edge. Additionally, the author provides personal comments on how scenario planning can be employed for future innovation and the social impact of change. 

Unit Three Individual Project

Sony and Forecasting

In the past, Sony has been a powerhouse among other businesses. It has a hand in several areas, such as TVs, games, cameras, audio, and memory storage (Sony, 2021). Several factors can shape these products, and it can be challenging to mitigate all, or even most, of the risks involved. Two quite valuable tools in this endeavor are scenario planning and traditional forecasting. Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imagining possible futures that companies can apply to many issues (Schoemaker, 1995). Conversely, Traditional forecasting employs historical observations to forecast future business metrics such as performance, inventory, or sales (DSPanel, 2020). 

Scenario planning allows a company to take a set of inputs and variables and theoretically align them to see what happens. This can result in a very accurate prediction but can also require a heavy investment of resources. Traditional forecasting simply looks at the numbers for a specific amount of time, such as quarters or years, to predict what the future may hold. Though it may be much cheaper than scenario planning, its one-dimensional approach cannot fully account for variables or issues, resulting in incorrect predictions.

Issues for Sony

Sony found itself in such a predicament with its product, the Sony Walkman, some years ago. While the original Walkman was highly successful, introducing CDs and digital music files such as MP3 created problems. Sony was quick to adapt to this change, and the Walkman evolved to be compatible with these new file types. At this point, Sony’s main issues with traditional forecasting began. The market was completely saturated with many MP3 players, and Sony’s projections with traditional forecasting had made it feel safe enough to ride the wave while generating profit. 

That same market had several issues, such as being unable to download MP3 files legally or conveniently. Apple introduced the iPod and the iTunes Music Store after accurately predicting the problems with legality and convenience (Hernandez, 2019). Instead of brashly throwing the iPod into the market, Apple decided to provide a platform to purchase MP3 files easily and legally. Without the benefit of scenario planning, Sony was caught flat-footed by the change, and Apple came to dominate the market from that point on. 

Scenario Planning

Individuals, groups, and businesses all possess reasons for change, which can be highly contextual. Scenario planning allows an entity to create a ‘what-if’ scenario and watch the events unfold to their climax. That entity can reposition, introduce, and remove variables affecting outcomes until the ideal design is obtained. Similarly, scenario planning can be an excellent tool for innovation because it allows that entity to understand the relationships between the variables that can affect the eventual product, service, or goal. 

There can be several forces involved in change, which are highly contextual. The forces were conventional and technological regarding Apple and their bid to dominate the MP3 area. MP3 files did not possess a standardized format for downloading that was legal and ethical. Additionally, while MP3 players had saturated the market, Apple saw that what was needed was a technological platform that allowed for the smooth transition of MP3 files from the vendor to the customer. Apple introduced the iTunes Music Store and the iPod, which positioned them to meet the complete needs of their customers. 

 

Future Innovation Efforts and Social Impact

Scenario planning is an excellent tool for future innovation efforts because it can illustrate a close approximation for a finished product or service. Additionally, even if there is no specific end goal in mind, scenario planning allows us to foresee the ‘landscape’ that could lead in the direction developers wish to pursue. I fall into the latter category as I currently have no ongoing projects. However, I prioritize efficiency in my work, and scenario planning allows me to understand how future technologies and processes can fit into my current tasks at work and streamline them. 

Scenario planning only accounts for the variables that are observed in the model. These are usually explicit variables that are manipulated but can also be implicit. If the social impact of any change is accounted for, it allows us to understand that impact better. If that impact is not accounted for, we may still get lucky and catch a glimpse of it. However, this is not advisable, and it should be counted as an explicit variable. 

References

DSPanel. (2020). Live forecasting vs traditional forecasting vs rolling forecasting. Performance Canvas. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://www.performancecanvas.com/live-vs-rolling-vs-traditional-forecasting/ 

Hernandez, M. (2019). Sony walkman and scenario planning. Dr. Michael K Hernandez. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://mkhernandez.wordpress.com/2018/02/24/sony-didnt-use-proper-scenario-type-planning-on-the-walkman/#:~:text=Sony%20didn't%20do%20proper,it%20big%20in%20the%20market. 

Schoemaker, P. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://sloanreview.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/1995/01/bb0aeaa3ab.pdf 

Sony. (2021). Consumer electronics. Consumer Electronics | Sony ET. Retrieved January 25, 2022, from https://www.sony.com/et/all-electronics 

 

Unit Three Discussion Board Two

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

January 18, 2022

Unit Three Discussion Board Two

        A prediction that was made by Nikola Tesla over one hundred years ago has come to fruition. Tesla was born in 1856 in Croatia and eventually moved to the United States and worked for Thomas Edison. He was ahead of his time and possessed a high level of innovation that allowed him to invest in many technologies. When alternating current (AC) favored by Tesla competed against direct current (DC), favored by Edison, Tesla publicly subjected himself to 250,000-volt shocks to demonstrate AC’s safety and ultimately won the competition (Newhall, 2013). 

Prediction

        Nikola Tesla stated in Popular Mechanics in 1909 that it would be possible to send wireless messages back and forth across the globe in the future using a mass-available handheld device (Sacco, 2010). Tesla boldly and accurately predicted the rise of smartphones. Keep in mind that while such large-scale predictions as this came true, several others have had far less success, such as everyone enjoying a personal helicopter or airplane runways atop skyscrapers. Regardless, this specific prediction of business innovation did eventually occur and proved Tesla correct. 

Forces

        Several different forces impacted this prediction and the eventual result. The technological force was paramount to Tesla because it was yet another invention that could significantly affect all involved. Additionally, if this technology could have been achieved during his lifetime and expanded upon from that point, today’s form of the same technology may be much more advanced. The technological force, the need to improve the available conditions of technology, seems to have been a constant for Tesla. 

        Once the technology was demonstrated, it was only a matter of scaling it up to attract more users. This is where the global force came in and pushed that technology out to the masses. The idea was transformed into smartphones, with cell phones becoming more popular, efficient, and necessary. At this stage, the current iteration exceeds the prediction set forth by Tesla, but this is a good thing. 

        User adoption has become so prevalent that building materials and processes see a reduction in costs. The global force allows Tesla’s prediction of international wireless messages through hand-held devices to truly meet the forecast letter. Furthermore, the societal force practically ensures that users will continue purchasing, using, and upgrading their smartphones for the foreseeable future. This is because society enjoys the permitted access to interconnectedness with individuals, groups, and businesses that is possible with the end-product of Tesla’s prediction. 

 

References

Newhall, M. (2013). Top 11 things you didn't know about nikola tesla. Energy.gov. Retrieved January 12,         2022, from https://www.energy.gov/articles/top-11-things-you-didnt-know-about-nikola-tesla 

Sacco, A. (2010). Blackberry, smartphones predicted by physicist tesla 100 years ago. CIO. Retrieved             January 12, 2022, from https://www.cio.com/article/294876/mobile-blackberry-smartphones-predicted-by-physicist-tesla-100-years-ago.html 

 

Unit Three Discussion Board One

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

January 18, 2022

Unit Three Discussion Board One

Scenario Planning

    When attempting to predict what may happen in the future, individuals, groups, and businesses have a few tools that can be utilized. Some are more effective than others, depending on the context of the situation. These different focuses set each device apart from others and allow them their specialty. Regardless, predicting the future holds several key advantages – especially in the business world. 

    Scenario planning is something that most people have direct experience with. It is a practice through which an entity can understand an uncertain future by exploring multiple possibilities of that future (Lincoln Institute, 2021). It allows that entity to ‘step’ through variables and understand how a change in one place can propagate and affect other areas. While this is a more complete form of prediction than simply traditional forecasting, it can be much more resource intense. 

    Building this potential future requires the entity to examine various aspects, and each element will incur a cost in the form of funding, time, and workforce. For the scenario to be fully comprehensive, it must be constructed to show all related variables and their interactions. This structure can then be queried in different ways to answer ‘what-if’ questions. Because of the results of this model, the entity should have premium information that shows where their business currently stands and where it will be in the forecast future.

Traditional Forecasting

    Traditional forecasting is the beginning of business predictions, and it has grown much since. It uses historical observations to estimate future metrics like inventory, budgets, and revenue (DSPanel, 2020). The company will forecast daily sales based on the previous year’s sales in the fast-food business. While this can be pretty beneficial in general, it can also be a weakness regarding a specific intent. 

    As the yearly seasons change, so can the number and consistency of customers visiting that store. Conversely, if a specific number of product units were sold on a specific date the previous year, there is no guarantee that it will again happen in the current year. This is because traditional forecasting relies on historical data, but it has a gap between the prediction and what occurs. Furthermore, traditional forecasting has a prime advantage when concerned with consistent occurrences on a large but straightforward scale. It tends to fail when applied to complex or inconsistent scenarios. 

    The most significant similarity between both types of forecasting is the critical necessity of accurate information. A predictive model will use the inputted data to create projections based on that data. If the information is too old, corrupted, or simply incorrect, the forecast predicted will be inaccurate. As such, the primary requirement of any forecasting is collecting relevant information that allows this model to operate successfully. 

References

DSPanel. (2020). Live forecasting vs traditional forecasting vs rolling forecasting. Performance Canvas.         Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://www.performancecanvas.com/live-vs-rolling-vs-traditional-        forecasting/ 

Lincoln Institute. (2021). Introduction to scenario planning. LILP. Retrieved January 11, 2022, from             https://www.lincolninst.edu/research-data/data-toolkits/consortium-scenario-planning/introduction-            scenario-planning 

Unit Two Individual Project

Jack Lilly

Colorado Technical University

CS875: Futuring and Innovation

Dr. Calongne

January 12, 2022

Abstract

This paper looks at two different accidental discoveries: nitrous oxide for anesthesia and the Cosmic Background Radiation (CMB). It was found that while nitrous oxide was used recreationally at parties, it also had a robust desensitizing effect and could be used in dentistry. Utilizing a now-obsolete antenna, two physicists were lucky to discover a consistent form of radio interference on their readings: the CMB. This paper also presents a few of the forces that influenced these discoveries. 

Unit Two Individual Project

Anesthesia 

    Anesthesia has been around for many centuries and has been available in multiple forms. In 650BC, at the Oracle of Delphi, Apollo’s Pythian priestesses would speak prophecy after breathing in fumes from geologic fault lines in the floor under the temple. In 400BC, the Assyrians and Egyptians would employ carotid compression to induce unconsciousness before a circumcision or eye surgery. In 64AD, the Greeks would boil mandrakes in wine to numb patients that would experience incisions or cauterizations (Wood Library, 2020).

    The forces that can motivate these techniques and practices are mainly societal and geographical. Apollo’s priestess can only perform her work at this temple because that is where the fumes that allowed her prophetic state emanated. The Egyptians and Assyrians were geographically limited in the herbs they could obtain. The Greeks did have access to herbs, and wine and society would prefer drinking a concoction to carotid compression to induce the same effects. 

Nitrous Oxide

    There are numerous other techniques, chemicals, and practices associated with anesthetizing patients, but we will focus on a particular approach that came about quite by accident. Horace Wells, a dentist, attended a lecture on nitrous oxide by Gardner Colton. While under the influence of nitrous oxide, Samuel Cooley, a clerk in an apothecary shop, injured his legs by running into wooden benches. The clerk was unaware of any injury until the nitrous oxide had worn off, and Wells questioned him about any pain. Finding that nitrous oxide desensitized the clerk, Wells decided with Colton to conduct a trial of the gas for use in dentistry (Haridas R., 2013). 

    The forces applied in this case could be medical and global. The discovery of a new desensitizing agent lends itself to the medical workforce while the medical party consistently seeks to improve its current techniques and materials. The global force is quite similar in that all societies are searching for improvements to the current system. With yet another material in their arsenals, patients are rendered improved care globally. 

Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation

    The cosmic microwave background (CMB) is a faint glow in microwave radiation that is almost perfectly uniform and helped establish the Big Bang paradigm (Stanford University, n.d). This accidental discovery was significant enough that the two physicists involved were awarded the Nobel Prize. As the story goes, Bell Labs had constructed an antenna that was soon made obsolete a few years later with a satellite. The two physicists, Arno Penzias and Robert Wilson proposed this antenna be used to measure the space between galaxies to determine if galaxies were drifting apart. Despite their best efforts, they could not remove a sort of interference that occurred regardless of where they pointed the telescope. It wasn’t until they contacted another physicist named Robert Dicke, who theorized such interference as proof of the Big Bang, that all three Physicists realized they had accidentally discovered the CMB (APS Physics, 2002). 

    There were two forces at work here: technological and scientifical. This discovery was just waiting to be found, but the technology had to be made available first. This occurred when the antenna became obsolete due to the satellite launch. The second force was scientifical, which is the intention to propagate knowledge. While the two physicists had not intended this discovery, its existence upended some scientific theories almost overnight. 

References

APS Physics. (2002). June 1963: Discovery of the cosmic microwave background. American Physical Society. Retrieved January 10, 2022, from https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/200207/history.cfm 

Haridas R. (2013). Horace wells’ demonstration of nitrous oxide in boston. Anesthesiology 2013; 119:1014–1022

Stanford University. (n.d.). Cosmic microwave background: kavli institute for particle astrophysics and cosmology (KIPAC). Cosmic Microwave Background | Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology (KIPAC). Retrieved January 10, 2022, from https://kipac.stanford.edu/research/topics/cosmic-microwave-background 

Wood Library. (2020). History of anesthesia. Wood Library-Museum of Anesthesiology. Retrieved January 6, 2022, from https://www.woodlibrarymuseum.org/history-of-anesthesia/